Happy Halloween

... and at the rate I am posting these days, Happy Thanksgiving, Merry Christmas and so on.

Part of it has been the crush of work which has seen my on 11:00 p.m. conference calls twice this week (thanks!). Part of it's family, hobbies, life and laziness.

But part of it has been due to the fact that there are many political sites out - Huffingtonpost, Daily KOS, ThinkProgress, etc. - there that do a fantastic job and which already echo my sentiment. But since I will be in Finland next week for work and unable to closely follow the election coverage next Tuesday, I thought I would throw in my own early prediction.

To respond to Kate's and others' concerns about jinxing the election, let's face it -- this thing is entirely over. Non-partisan polling is leaning decidedly towards Senator Obama. Obama is a lock in the Northeast (PA, NY, NJ, ME, VT, DE, MD, CT, etc.), the West Coast (CA, OR, WA, HI) and the North Central (IL, IA, WI, MN, MI). Those states alone total 257 electoral votes.

This means that if Obama wins any of the following states, he will win: FL, VA, OH, CO, NV, NM, NC, or MO. And Obama has polling leads in each of those states. He has commanding leads (5%+) in OH, CO, NV, NM and narrow leads in former red states like NC and MO.

Will he win all of them? No. I still believe in the closet racist vote. But there's almost no way for McCain to win/cheat in all of those states.

So if they announce next Tuesday that Obama wins either Florida (2% pt lead) or Virginia (6% pt lead) as is currently expected, then the election will be all but over and we're headed towards a landslide. Even if not, Obama would have to lose the entire "middle" and that seems highly, highly unlikely.

I'm personally predicting a pretty sizable victory for Obama. By my calculations, Obama should end up with around 349 electoral votes -- and upwards of 364 or so if everything breaks his way -- which is more than Truman, Kennedy, Nixon, Carter, or GWB got in their first term elections. Which is pretty amazing with all of the racism and false information being circulated these days. It's been so bad recently, that I decided to take a huge break from it all, so maybe it's a good thing I'll miss things next week. Anyway, get out and vote (although you probably already have) and watch CNN non-stop on my behalf.

It's Over

Yes, I know that we still have 19 days until the election, but the fact is that this race is all but officially over: Barack Obama will be the 44th President of the United States.

Fivethirtyeight.com has Obama with a 95% winning percentage. With leads in traditional Republican states such as Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, Obama's lead is almost insurmountable at this point in time. McCain has to produce a video of Obama wearing a turban and a "Free Iraq" t-shirt while raping a white woman. Absent that, November 4 looks to be a landslide victory.

Personally, I have a lot of mixed emotions about the election at this point in time. I am *really* excited that the McCain-Palin combo is not going to be leading our government for the next 4-8 years. I am surprised that this country is actually about to elect a person with brown skin president, although it took a highly educated (Republican translation "elitist" and "well spoken") and superior candidate to do so.

At the same time, I am outraged that we've had to deal with stupid, racist shit like this in the campaign:

And let's be honest, I am also a little nervous as to what's going to happen the next four years since Obama has been handed a huge mess by GW to clean up. Seriously, things are fucked up beyond comprehension and no matter what Obama does, it's still likely to be a mess in four years. Don't get me wrong, I but into his leadership and vision and all that, I just know it's going to be a tough road, even more so with opponents eagerly looking to say "I told you so" when even magic pixie dust couldn't make things right.

And at the same time, I'm kind of sad because I will miss stupid shit like this:



Goodbye Sarah Palin. I'm looking forward to never hearing your voice again.

Palin: Being Gay Is A Choice

Despite all the scientific evidence to the contrary, Sarah Palin still believes that homosexuals choose their sexual orientation. In yet another video clip as a result of her recent interview with Katie Couric (as a side note, how long did she interview her for)

Palin: "I have, one of my absolute best friends for the last 30 years who happens to be gay."

Translation: "I will now make up a story about a token gay friend. Ewww!"

Palin: "And I love her dearly."

Translation: "And Jesus hates her dearly."

Palin: "And she is not my "gay friend."

Translation: "Now Katie, what is that PC term that folks use to describe female homosexuals? I know I shouldn't use the expression "bull dyke" but it's the only thing I can think of."

Palin: "She is one of my best friends who happens to have made a choice that isn’t a choice that I have made."

Translation: Despite all scientific evidence to the contrary, I believe she chose to be gay. I also believe in talking snakes and that men and dinosaurs roamed the Earth together 6,000 years ago. Now mybe if she were cuter and thinner, she would attract a man that would cure her of her 'choice.' Oh well, I'll pray for her."

Palin: "But I am not gonna judge people."

Translation: "But Jesus will. Prepare to burn in Hell, lesbo."

I also love the part where she says "I don't know what prayers are going to be answered and not answered." Whew, that's a huge relief. Because otherwise you would be some sort of God-like entity, which scares me almost as much as you being president does.

I honestly do not believe a single word that this woman just said. Seriously, I thought "thou shall not lie" was one of the Ten Commandments. Perhaps the Wasilla Bible Church changed that commandment to "thou shall not have butt sex with another man."

Anyway ... the whole "gay choice/screw what science says" approach she employs is so Medieval and outdated. Does she seriously believe that? In his comedy CD "Shut Up You Fucking Baby," David Cross has a great bit where he dispels the scenario where someone would choose to be gay (and later discusses the stereotypical, effeminate "gay" voice. Warning: NSFW language):