Happy Halloween

... and at the rate I am posting these days, Happy Thanksgiving, Merry Christmas and so on.

Part of it has been the crush of work which has seen my on 11:00 p.m. conference calls twice this week (thanks!). Part of it's family, hobbies, life and laziness.

But part of it has been due to the fact that there are many political sites out - Huffingtonpost, Daily KOS, ThinkProgress, etc. - there that do a fantastic job and which already echo my sentiment. But since I will be in Finland next week for work and unable to closely follow the election coverage next Tuesday, I thought I would throw in my own early prediction.

To respond to Kate's and others' concerns about jinxing the election, let's face it -- this thing is entirely over. Non-partisan polling is leaning decidedly towards Senator Obama. Obama is a lock in the Northeast (PA, NY, NJ, ME, VT, DE, MD, CT, etc.), the West Coast (CA, OR, WA, HI) and the North Central (IL, IA, WI, MN, MI). Those states alone total 257 electoral votes.

This means that if Obama wins any of the following states, he will win: FL, VA, OH, CO, NV, NM, NC, or MO. And Obama has polling leads in each of those states. He has commanding leads (5%+) in OH, CO, NV, NM and narrow leads in former red states like NC and MO.

Will he win all of them? No. I still believe in the closet racist vote. But there's almost no way for McCain to win/cheat in all of those states.

So if they announce next Tuesday that Obama wins either Florida (2% pt lead) or Virginia (6% pt lead) as is currently expected, then the election will be all but over and we're headed towards a landslide. Even if not, Obama would have to lose the entire "middle" and that seems highly, highly unlikely.

I'm personally predicting a pretty sizable victory for Obama. By my calculations, Obama should end up with around 349 electoral votes -- and upwards of 364 or so if everything breaks his way -- which is more than Truman, Kennedy, Nixon, Carter, or GWB got in their first term elections. Which is pretty amazing with all of the racism and false information being circulated these days. It's been so bad recently, that I decided to take a huge break from it all, so maybe it's a good thing I'll miss things next week. Anyway, get out and vote (although you probably already have) and watch CNN non-stop on my behalf.

It's Over

Yes, I know that we still have 19 days until the election, but the fact is that this race is all but officially over: Barack Obama will be the 44th President of the United States.

Fivethirtyeight.com has Obama with a 95% winning percentage. With leads in traditional Republican states such as Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, Obama's lead is almost insurmountable at this point in time. McCain has to produce a video of Obama wearing a turban and a "Free Iraq" t-shirt while raping a white woman. Absent that, November 4 looks to be a landslide victory.

Personally, I have a lot of mixed emotions about the election at this point in time. I am *really* excited that the McCain-Palin combo is not going to be leading our government for the next 4-8 years. I am surprised that this country is actually about to elect a person with brown skin president, although it took a highly educated (Republican translation "elitist" and "well spoken") and superior candidate to do so.

At the same time, I am outraged that we've had to deal with stupid, racist shit like this in the campaign:

And let's be honest, I am also a little nervous as to what's going to happen the next four years since Obama has been handed a huge mess by GW to clean up. Seriously, things are fucked up beyond comprehension and no matter what Obama does, it's still likely to be a mess in four years. Don't get me wrong, I but into his leadership and vision and all that, I just know it's going to be a tough road, even more so with opponents eagerly looking to say "I told you so" when even magic pixie dust couldn't make things right.

And at the same time, I'm kind of sad because I will miss stupid shit like this:



Goodbye Sarah Palin. I'm looking forward to never hearing your voice again.

Palin, McCain ... Then Pray For Rain

Over recent weeks, much has been made of the fact that Sarah Palin attended 5 colleges over 6 years. So below is a comparison of the educational backgrounds of what will be out next President and Vice President (thanks to VMD for the source):

Barack Obama:
Occidental College - Two years
Columbia University - B.A. political science with a specialization in international relations
Harvard - Juris Doctor (J.D.) Magna Cum Laude

Joe Biden:
University of Delaware - B.A. in history and B.A. in political science
Syracuse University College of Law - J.D.

vs.

John McCain:
United States Naval Academy - Class rank 894 of 899

Sarah Palin (a/k/a Caribou Barbie):
Hawaii Pacific University - 1 semester
North Idaho College - 2 semesters - general studies
University of Idaho - 2 semesters - journalism
Matanuska-Susitna College - 1 semester
University of Idaho - 3 semesters - B.A. in journalism

And just for shits and grins, here's the Libertarian ticket:

Bob Barr:
University of Southern California - B.A.
George Washington University - master's degree in international journalism
Georgetown University - J.D.

Wayne Allyn Root:
Columbia University - B.A. political science (I don't know who is either but found out that he was in the same class as Obama)

So it turns out that Palin only attended 4 different colleges -- not 5 --- over that fateful 6 year period of time. Obama, on the other hand, only went to Occidental for 2 years before he dropped out. And by my count, Obama and Biden went to as many schools (5 different schools) as did McCain and Palin. Magna Cum Laude vs. 894/899? This all really seems like a wash to me.

Holy. Fuck.

In keeping with the politics theme, I ran across this awesome ad for eMobile (a Japanese phone company), which has a monkey politician stands before a chanting crowd holding up signs calling for "change."

Yes, that's right kiddos, the Japanese have produced a commercial featuring a monkey as an Obama-surrogate selling mobile devices. Fucking obscene.



As much as I love (a) monkeys, and (b) those insane Japanese game shows, this is pretty fucking ridiculous. Previously, a company in Texas was selling t-shirts which read "If Obama Gets Elected Will They Call It The "Black House'?" And we're still in June, boys and girls. This is going to be a long summer.

Sad or Hilarious? You Be the Judge ...

This Daily Kos article perfectly illustrates why McCain is entirely out of touch with modern society and, by extension, would be a terrible President. A simple off-handed question about computers led to the following exchange:

Q: Are you a Mac or a PC guy?

A: Neither, I'm an illiterate that has to rely on my wife for all of the assistance I can get.

What the fuck? Can a current Presidential candidate really be computer illiterate? I cannot fathom that my 5-year old is more fluent around a computer than McCain. Also, good call on disclosing the fact that you depend upon your prescription drug addicted wife to help you with technical matters. Perhaps when you're elected President, you can appoint Rush Limbaugh to your cabinet and they can compare notes as to how they illegally acquired prescription drugs.

So I'm thinking all of this was some sort of joke that McCain played on the interviewer. Or at least I did think that until one of his aides felt compelled to defend his boss' technology illiteracy.

"You don't actually have to use a computer to understand how it shapes the country," McCain aide Mark Soohoo said. [...] John McCain is aware of the Internet. This is a man who has a very long history of understanding on a range of issues."

Note to Senator McCain -- computers and the Interweb are not a fad and do not steal your soul. You are an idiot. The fact that you are oblivious to this means you are equally oblivious to an entire generation that has grown up with these technologies. Honestly, computer experience and skills are so basic and fundamental these days that I don't see how anyone is hired for even an entry-level job without them. Even McCain's beloved military uses them (extensively, I might add). Good god, please-oh-please do not let this guy win.

Next blog -- there's good news on the Obama front ...

Obama Takes Wisconsin and Hawaii

Yesterday was more good news for Obama, who won both the Wisconsin Democratic primary and the Hawaii caucuses last night, extending his winning streak to ten consecutive contests and dealing another significant blow to Clinton, whose candidacy now hangs on the outcome in Ohio and Texas. She's lost two of her key aids and is struggling to find her voice and regain momentum. Some have suggested that, for all intents and purposes, this race is over. Pundits have suggested that it's inevitable she go with negative attack ads, but she doesn't want to further increase her own negative approval rating as she could easily be the next Senate majority leader or potentially the nominee in 2012.

If Ohio and Texas do not go extremely well for her, at what point in time does she accept this and move on for the sake of unity and in the spirit of winning in November. I like both candidates, but the last thing I want to see is the two of them tearing each other down and depleting their campaign funds during the primary process. This election is for all the marbles, boys and girls. Let's hope the Dems don't screw it up again (see, 2000 and 2004).